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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, May 12, 2025: U.S.Fed Patience, Trade Talks, and Eurozone Hopes
The Fed holds rates steady, with Chair Powell emphasizing the central bank’s independence and a patient stance, as current economic conditions do not warrant immediate action. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues its tariff negotiations, sealing an initial deal with the UK and signaling a compromise with China. In Europe, Friedrich Merz has taken office as…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, May 5, 2025: Recession Hits U.S. as Euro Finds Breathing Room
The U.S. economy slipped into reverse in the first quarter of 2025, with inflation ticking higher. That was the key message from the latest GDP release, as a surge in imports weighed heavily on growth. In Europe, inflation remains subdued, giving the euro a chance to regroup after its sharp rally in recent weeks amid…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook, April 28, 2025: Trump’s Shift Eases Volatility, Dollar Remains Under Pressure
Trump seems to have recognized that pulling too hard risks breaking the rope — with equity, bond, and currency markets serving as clear indicators of mounting uncertainty. His partial retreat on China and Fed policy has given markets some breathing room, though the dollar remains under persistent pressure.
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook April 21, 2025: Trump Clashes with Powell as Dollar Tests Critical Lows
Powell Holds the Line as Trump Turns Up the Heat and Trade Tensions Escalate The Fed isn’t coming to Trump’s rescue—quite the opposite. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments last week revealed a growing rift between the central bank and the White House. Powell reiterated that monetary policy decisions will remain independent of political pressure. He…
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EurUsd Weekly Outlook, April 14, 2025 – Trade War Tensions and Technical Breakthroughs
Donald Trump continues to inject volatility into a market gripped by hysteria, which currently finds little support in the trade war. The United States has intensified tariffs on China, while suspending them for 90 days for all other countries. In response, China has raised tariffs on American goods to 125%. Both the yuan and the…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, April 7, 2025: Trade War Triggers Volatility and Shifts Market Dynamics
Trump’s Tariffs Spark Global Trade War and Economic Uncertainty The day of reckoning has arrived. Or rather, the day of liberation. But also, the day of surrender, judging by the markets’ reaction. As promised during his campaign, Trump shook the world with his decision to impose tariffs on imports from numerous countries, starting with a…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – March 31, 2025: Trump’s Tariffs and the Euro’s Test of Key Resistance
The day of liberation has finally arrived, and on April 2, Donald Trump will announce his vision for global trade, imposing tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the United States. Central banks are currently standing by, awaiting news. EUR/USD is consolidating its positions after testing key resistance levels of 1.09/1.10.
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook for March 3, 2025 –Navigating Stagflation and Shifting Market Dynamics
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged but warns the markets that the economy will slow down, with inflation struggling to fall from current levels. There may be (perhaps) two more rate cuts in 2025, with Trump urging immediate action. Meanwhile, in Europe, new defense investment plans and the expansion of Germany’s budget bring optimism to…
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Weekly EUR/USD Outlook for March 3, 2025 – Trump’s Tariffs and Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on the Euro
Tensions between Trump and Europe remain high, with peace in Ukraine once again distant after the violent live TV confrontation with Zelensky and a trade war that seems poised for a new chapter. The euro and European stock markets remain resilient, but the yield curve in the United States is flattening, signaling expectations of an…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, February 24, 2025 – Geopolitical Shifts and Market Stalemate
The situation in Europe, and especially in Ukraine, is rapidly deteriorating following Donald Trump’s shocking about-face on Ukraine. The tycoon’s decision to seek an agreement by initially involving only Russia and asking Ukrainian Prime Minister Zelensky to take a step back marks the rupture of the alliance supporting the invaded country. The geopolitical crisis risks…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook for February 17, 2025 – Inflation, Central Bank Policies, and Key Resistance Levels
Donald Trump continues to dominate the geopolitical stage with a strong attempt to bring Ukraine and Russia to the peace table. Paradoxically, Europe and the euro stand to benefit financially, with the German elections serving as the market mover of the month. Meanwhile, in the U.S., inflation rises to 3%, extinguishing any hopes of a…
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, February 10, 2025 – Trump’s Tariff Maneuvers and Europe’s Economic Response
Trump follows through on his promise by imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, only to suspend it a few hours later to allow for negotiations and reach an acceptable solution. The markets were rattled but managed to recover the losses in subsequent sessions. EUR/USD once again confirms the strength of the 1.02 support…
