Category: Global
-
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook, January 6, 2025 – Gas Crisis and Interest Rates Impacting the Euro
The gas war reignites tensions over energy prices in Europe and also puts pressure on the euro, whose performance is hindered by political concerns in key countries like France and Germany, as well as macroeconomic data that continues to offer little reassurance regarding recovery. Meanwhile, expectations grow for Trump’s inauguration at the White House.
-
2025 EurUsd Outlook – What Does the New Year Hold for the Euro and Dollar?
A 2025 filled with both certainties and uncertainties is about to unfold. The United States, Europe, China, wars, inflation, and interest rates will continue to drive content and volatility in markets that, in 2024, delivered robust performance in equities, stagnation in bonds, and a strong dollar, fueled by significant economic and interest rate differentials between…
-
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook for December 9, 2024 – European Crisis Deepens as U.S. Economy Strengthens
The European political and economic crisis is worsening. Following Germany, France may also face new elections after the collapse of the Barnier government, or Macron will need to try to form a new government. This crisis contrasts with a U.S. economy that is thriving, which of course strengthens the U.S. dollar. However, technically, we still…
-
Weekly Eur/Usd Outlook – October 28, 2024 – Election Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions Shake Markets
With Election Day just days away, the U.S. faces a close contest between Trump and Harris. The American economy is outperforming expectations, prompting the Fed to take a cautious approach on rate cuts. In contrast, the European Central Bank is pressured to cut rates further to address rapidly easing inflation and stagnating growth. Adding to…
-
Weekly EUR/USD Outlook for October 7, 2024 – Middle Eastern Conflict Bolsters Dollar as Inflation Declines in Europe
Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil Prices, Strong U.S. Jobs Data Challenges Fed Rate Cuts Markets remain tense amid the wave of Middle Eastern war tensions. Israel’s attack on Lebanon and Iran’s retaliatory response on Israeli soil threaten to expand the conflict. However, markets have found some comfort in China’s decisive actions to combat the stagnation of…
-
Weekly Eur/Usd Outlook for September 30, 2024 – Euro Holds as U.S. Rate Cuts Loom
Global bond yields continue to compress, signaling that markets expect more accommodative policies from central banks. While Europe seems headed for recession, China is reviving its monetary and fiscal tools in an effort to escape an increasingly entrenched deflationary crisis.
-
Weekly EUR/USD Outlook – September 23, 2024 – Fed’s Surprise Rate Cut
Fed’s Aggressive Rate Cuts Spark Debate as Economic Uncertainty Grows In alignment with bond market expectations, the Fed acted swiftly with a substantial 50 basis point rate cut, possibly aiming to make up for lost ground in August. The market now anticipates two additional 25 basis point cuts in the year’s final two meetings, scheduled…
-
Weekly EurUsd Outlook for September 16, 2024 – Central Banks Take the Stage Amid Key Resistance Levels
The dollar holds steady, and the euro fails to advance. This sums up a week in which the ECB fulfilled its promise to cut interest rates, while U.S. inflation, at 2.5%, set the stage for a similar move by the Fed in what will be the final meeting before the much-anticipated presidential elections in November.
-
EurUsd Weekly Outlook – September 9, 2024: Markets Brace for Fed and ECB Decisions
The dollar continues to remain weak ahead of the two central bank meetings (FED and ECB), which are expected to result in a new rate cut from the ECB and the start of an expansionary phase by the FED. The dollar is losing ground due to the prospect of a more decisive U.S. monetary policy…
-
Weekly EurUsd Outlook for September 2, 2024 – Dollar Resilience Amid Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The resilience of the dollar seems to be the dominant theme as August comes to a close, with the Fed making it clear that rate cuts will occur before the November presidential elections. The greenback has held its ground, avoiding a breach of key technical levels against both the euro and the yen. Meanwhile, in…